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Mortgage Lock-In Effect Shows Signs of Easing as New Listings Increase

Ednews staff ~ 10/20/2024
Newly listed homes increased by 11.6 % YOY and actively listed homes rose 33.9 % YOY , according to Realtor.com® September Housing Report SANTA CLARA , Calif. , Oct. 3 , 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Sellers got moving as mortgage rates notably hit a 24-month low following the Federal Reserve 's

Newly listed homes increased by 11.6% YOY and actively listed homes rose 33.9% YOY, according to Realtor.com® September Housing Report

SANTA CLARA, Calif., Oct. 3, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Sellers got moving as mortgage rates notably hit a 24-month low following the Federal Reserve's jumbo rate cut of 50 bps in September. According to the Realtor.com® September Housing Report, newly listed homes increased by 11.6% compared to last September, yielding a significant reversal from the 0.9% decrease in August 2024, while actively listed homes rose 34.0%.

"Sellers, especially those who are locked into a low rate, have been waiting for market conditions to change. Now that we're seeing mortgage rates down to their lowest levels in two years, there are signs of movement, with more sellers putting homes on the market even in what's typically a real estate shoulder season," said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, Realtor.com®. "We expect mortgage rates to hold around 6% through the end of the year, which is a significant difference from their 7.8% high in October 2023. This has increased the buying power of many home shoppers and is a bonus over and above the seasonal factors that make this time of year the Best Time to Buy."

September 2024 Housing Metrics – National

Metric

Change over Sept. 2023

Change over Sept. 2019

Median listing price

-1.0% (to $425,000)

+36.0 %

Active listings

+34.0 %

-23.2 %

New listings

+11.6 %

-11.8 %

Median days on market

+7 days (to 55 days)

 -7  days

Share of active listings with price reductions

+0.5 percentage points

(to 18.4%)

-1.0 percentage points

Median List Price Per Sq.Ft.

+2.3 %

+50.8 %

Chiseling Away at the "Lock-in" EffectFor the past few years, the real estate market has been plagued by the "lock-in" effect, whereby homeowners, who are locked into a relatively low mortgage rate, have been staying put, yielding a negative impact on available inventory. In fact, as of mid-2024, 84% of outstanding mortgages had a mortgage rate below 6%, and 56% had a rate below 4%. However, according to the Realtor.com® September housing data, the number of new listings jumped on a year-over-year basis, reaching the highest level for any September since 2021. The jump could indicate that homeowner sentiment is shifting, with larger numbers ready to get back into the market and sell. In fact, markets where homes are more expensive saw the most growth in new listings, perhaps because buyers in these areas see the biggest impact from falling mortgage rates.

Metros with Highest Increase in New Listings in September 2024

Metro

% change in New Listings count YoY

Median Listing Price

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

41.8 %

$772,425

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

27.1 %

$1,432,170

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

26.2 %

$599,948

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO

25.5 %

$610,250

Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

24.4 %

$839,900

Raleigh-Cary, NC

24.2 %

$453,165

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

22.6 %

$1,154,440

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

21.5 %

$997,000

Providence-Warwick, RI-MA

21.5 %

$567,500

Richmond, VA

20.1 %

$442,346

The Slowest September Since 2019Generally, buyers can look forward to not only an increase in inventory, but a little less time constraint as homes stay on the market longer. This September, the typical home spent 55 days on the market, which is seven more days than last year and two more days than August 2024. Compared to previous years, September 2024 marked the slowest one since 2019.

While the typical home on the market this September spent 55 days on the market, in certain metros that number is even higher. A look at the top 50 metros shows a typical home in New Orleans spent 78 days on the market, an increase of 13 days from last September. Rounding out the five metros with the highest median days spent on market are Miami (73 days), Austin (72 days), San Antonio (67 days), and Tampa (66 days). On the opposite end, the metros that experienced the fastest movement include Milwaukee (31 days) followed by San jose (31 days), Boston (31 days), Hartford (33 days), and San Francisco (33 days).

Home Values GrowAn increase in price-per-square foot indicates the growth in value of homes, and according to data in September 2024, homes are seeing sizable price growth compared to homes listed prior to the pandemic. The median listing price per square foot increased by 2.3% year-over-year, but compared to September 2019, the price per square foot has grown by 50.9%. In fact, among the top 50 metros, the price per square foot growth rate ranged from 22.7% to 71.9%. Leading the way is, perhaps not by surprise, the New York metro area with a 71.9% increase in price per square foot vs. September 2019. Followed by Tampa (+63.6%), and Hartford (+62.3%). Markets which saw the lowest return included San Francisco (+22.7%), New Orleans (+25.0%), and Birmingham (+26.7%).

"Generally speaking, relief is brewing. On the one hand, buyers are seeing not only an increase in home listings but they're also seeing homes spend more time on the market, which means more options and less frenzy to buy," said Ralph McLaughlin, Sr. Economist, Realtor.com®. "For sellers, there's been positive movement in home value as indications show an increase in price growth since before the pandemic. And, all around, the decline in mortgage rates are lowering the barrier to entry and encouraging people to get into the market once again."

September 2024 Housing Overview of the 50 Largest Metros 

Metro Area

Median Listing Price

Median Listing Price YoY

Median Listing Price per Sq. Ft. YoY

Median Listing Price vs September 2019

Median Listing Price per Sq. Ft. vs September 2019

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, Ga.

$414,560

-2.7 %

1.1 %

31.7 %

51.2 %

Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, Texas

$520,000

-6.6 %

-4.1 %

44.1 %

54.8 %

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.

$369,900

0.0 %

1.7 %

12.7 %

28.1 %

Birmingham-Hoover, Ala.

$300,000

0.3 %

1.4 %

12.5 %

26.5 %

Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.

$839,900

-1.1 %

0.7 %

42.5 %

59.7 %

Buffalo-Cheektowaga, N.Y.

$277,450

6.8 %

6.8 %

34.5 %

44.9 %

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.

$430,000

1.2 %

2.0 %

26.7 %

57.3 %

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.

$379,900

1.3 %

2.9 %

19.3 %

33.3 %

Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.

$337,000

-9.5 %

3.3 %

24.9 %

50.7 %

Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio

$262,213

9.3 %

14.0 %

32.5 %

48.4 %

Columbus, Ohio

$377,450

-0.6 %

4.0 %

29.7 %

54.2 %

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas

$439,450

-2.3 %

-0.1 %

27.4 %

43.3 %

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.

$610,250

-6.0 %

0.3 %

22.9 %

43.2 %

Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.

$277,000

5.7 %

5.0 %

13.7 %

31.9 %

Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, Conn.

$412,400

3.1 %

15.0 %

38.3 %

62.7 %

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas

$370,000

0.0 %

-0.2 %

18.8 %

37.2 %

Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.

$324,950

-1.5 %

3.8 %

22.7 %

52.7 %

Jacksonville, Fla.

$399,000

-6.1 %

-2.2 %

32.3 %

50.1 %

Kansas City, Mo.-Kan.

$389,500

-8.4 %

-2.1 %

24.9 %

42.3 %

Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.

$477,250

-1.0 %

3.8 %

48.4 %

55.1 %

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.

$1,154,440

-1.7 %

1.9 %

37.8 %

47.7 %

Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.

$318,250

0.6 %

3.4 %

20.3 %

41.7 %

Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.

$336,225

8.5 %

0.0 %

45.4 %

60.9 %

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla.

$525,000

-12.4 %

-9.1 %

31.5 %

42.8 %

Milwaukee-Waukesha, Wis.

$389,900

11.4 %

7.6 %

44.5 %

44.4 %

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.

$432,500

-2.8 %

0.9 %

26.1 %

32.0 %

Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tenn.

$547,865

-5.4 %

0.7 %

47.4 %

61.8 %

New Orleans-Metairie, La.

$325,000

-3.0 %

-1.2 %

14.0 %

25.0 %

New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.

$764,000

6.3 %

8.8 %

32.4 %

72.7 %

Oklahoma City, Okla.

$314,950

-4.6 %

-0.5 %

24.7 %

40.9 %

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.

$429,950

-5.6 %

-1.6 %

34.1 %

52.0 %

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.

$379,450

8.4 %

5.9 %

28.8 %

51.0 %

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz.

$519,850

-2.3 %

-0.5 %

35.3 %

51.4 %

Pittsburgh, Pa.

$245,000

-1.5 %

5.2 %

22.9 %

29.9 %

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.

$604,890

-3.2 %

0.0 %

28.5 %

38.3 %

Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.

$567,500

3.2 %

6.1 %

49.6 %

47.1 %

Raleigh-Cary, N.C.

$453,165

-1.4 %

2.3 %

23.3 %

51.3 %

Richmond, Va.

$442,346

0.7 %

4.0 %

37.1 %

56.2 %

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.

$599,000

3.5 %

2.2 %

45.1 %

58.0 %

Rochester, N.Y.

$282,500

13.0 %

8.5 %

35.9 %

42.6 %

Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, Calif.

$635,000

-2.3 %

0.7 %

29.7 %

37.7 %

San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas

$339,948

-2.8 %

-2.2 %

18.9 %

36.9 %

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, Calif.

$997,000

-5.0 %

1.1 %

41.5 %

59.1 %

San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif.

$997,500

-8.9 %

-6.2 %

6.6 %

22.4 %

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.

$1,432,170

2.4 %

2.6 %

27.6 %

27.5 %

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.

$772,425

-3.3 %

-0.4 %

31.0 %

47.8 %

St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.

$299,900

7.1 %

7.1 %

34.6 %

31.3 %

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.

$414,948

-5.5 %

-2.7 %

47.6 %

63.6 %

Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.

$390,000

2.8 %

5.0 %

33.8 %

44.6 %

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W. Va.

$599,948

-2.4 %

4.4 %

26.3 %

53.8 %

Metro Area

Active Listing Count YoY

New Listing Count YoY

Median Days on Market

Median Days on Market Y-Y (Days)

Price– Reduced Share

Price-Reduced Share Y-Y (Percentage Points)

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, Ga.

52.7 %

11.5 %

50

7

17.5 %

2.5 pp

Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, Texas

22.9 %

-1.4 %

72

14

25.0 %

-8.8 pp

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.

24.7 %

14.3 %

38

1

27.4 %

1.3 pp

Birmingham-Hoover, Ala.

29.5 %

6.5 %

54

5

28.2 %

1.6 pp

Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.

29.8 %

24.4 %

31

0

16.5 %

1.4 pp

Buffalo-Cheektowaga, N.Y.

13.9 %

6.8 %

40

1

10.8 %

1.6 pp

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.

61.0 %

10.3 %

48

8

19.0 %

4.9 pp

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.

13.8 %

5.2 %

36

-1

25.9 %

1.5 pp

Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.

34.5 %

4.4 %

38

6

25.9 %

2.2 pp

Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio

11.6 %

-1.7 %

39

-1

17.3 %

2.3 pp

Columbus, Ohio

39.2 %

6.6 %

37

7

21.9 %

3.9 pp

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas

49.3 %

8.2 %

53

9

13.6 %

1.1 pp

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.

61.7 %

25.5 %

50

12

20.4 %

1.6 pp

Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.

16.5 %

11.6 %

39

-2

22.2 %

1.8 pp

Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, Conn.

13.5 %

10.0 %

33

-5

17.3 %

2.8 pp

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas

29.9 %

6.3 %

48

4

18.5 %

-1.8 pp

Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.

23.8 %

6.3 %

45

6

17.0 %

-0.5 pp

Jacksonville, Fla.

61.9 %

3.0 %

65

15

17.0 %

2.1 pp

Kansas City, Mo.-Kan.

25.3 %

9.5 %

52

2

17.9 %

1.6 pp

Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.

47.3 %

15.9 %

44

1

9.4 %

5.1 pp

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.

46.9 %

22.6 %

46

1

24.2 %

1.9 pp

Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.

31.4 %

5.7 %

38

6

23.3 %

0.7 pp

Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.

36.5 %

-0.6 %

62

16

15.7 %

-0.7 pp

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla.

67.9 %

10.3 %

73

15

26.2 %

3.5 pp

Milwaukee-Waukesha, Wis.

7.8 %

9.1 %

31

1

20.1 %

3.0 pp

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.

18.5 %

9.5 %

40

4

26.4 %

-0.6 pp

Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tenn.

30.6 %

14.0 %

52

15

17.4 %

-5.6 pp

New Orleans-Metairie, La.

19.4 %

-9.5 %

79

13

19.1 %

-2.6 pp

New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.

1.6 %

14.7 %

57

-3

14.7 %

1.0 pp

Oklahoma City, Okla.

37.6 %

15.6 %

45

-1

15.5 %

3.5 pp

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.

68.6 %

5.4 %

65

15

4.7 %

2.7 pp

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.

14.1 %

7.7 %

45

0

20.1 %

1.1 pp

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz.

48.8 %

12.3 %

56

17

25.0 %

1.4 pp

Pittsburgh, Pa.

21.2 %

9.0 %

50

-1

18.2 %

2.1 pp

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.

27.9 %

14.7 %

58

13

13.6 %

5.6 pp

Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.

32.6 %

21.5 %

35

-1

11.2 %

8.9 pp

Raleigh-Cary, N.C.

48.4 %

24.2 %

51

8

17.3 %

2.9 pp

Richmond, Va.

27.6 %

20.1 %

43

1

17.2 %

3.0 pp

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.

40.3 %

14.5 %

54

5

28.1 %

0.6 pp

Rochester, N.Y.

16.6 %

8.2 %

38

21

21.5 %

-5.6 pp

Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, Calif.

49.0 %

8.6 %

44

7

13.9 %

2.5 pp

San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas

22.3 %

-8.3 %

67

16

17.5 %

-1.1 pp

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, Calif.

77.2 %

21.5 %

40

5

25.0 %

3.6 pp

San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif.

27.6 %

20.0 %

33

4

27.4 %

1.2 pp

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.

39.3 %

27.1 %

31

2

28.2 %

0.4 pp

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.

67.9 %

41.8 %

43

6

16.5 %

0.8 pp

St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.

12.4 %

2.3 %

45

7

10.8 %

1.1 pp

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.

74.0 %

-2.3 %

66

22

19.0 %

5.5 pp

Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.

26.4 %

5.2 %

41

5

25.9 %

4.7 pp

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W. Va.

23.1 %

26.2 %

36

1

25.9 %

-0.2 pp

MethodologyRealtor.com housing data as of September 2024. Listings include the active inventory of existing single-family homes and condos/townhomes/row homes/co-ops for the given level of geography on Realtor.com; new construction is excluded unless listed via an MLS that provides listing data to Realtor.com. Realtor.com data history goes back to July 2016. The 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB-202003). With the release of its September 2024 housing trends report, Realtor.com® has restated data points for some previous months. As a result of these changes, some of the data released since September 2024 will not be directly comparable with previous data releases (files downloaded before September 2024) and Realtor.com® economics research reports.

About Realtor.com®Realtor.com® is an open real estate marketplace built for everyone. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate more than 25 years ago. Today, through its website and mobile apps, Realtor.com® is a trusted guide for consumers, empowering more people to find their way home by breaking down barriers, helping them make the right connections, and creating confidence through expert insights and guidance. For professionals, Realtor.com® is a trusted partner for business growth, offering consumer connections and branding solutions that help them succeed in today's on-demand world. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. For more information, visit Realtor.com®.

Media ContactAsees Singh [email protected]

SOURCE Realtor.com

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